Licensed Doesn't Mean Trained

The number that should bother you

The Crime Prevention Research Center — as far as we can tell the only organization tracking this nationally, which is itself worth knowing — counted about 20.9 million active concealed carry permits at the end of 2025, down from a peak near 22 million in 2022. No federal agency publishes a comparable series, so there's nothing to check it against.

The decline isn't fewer people carrying. It's that 29 states now allow permitless (constitutional) carry, so fewer people bother with a permit at all.

So the real number of people carrying concealed handguns in public is almost certainly well above that permit count. The vast majority of them completed the bare minimum training their state required, if their state required any training at all.

What "training" actually looks like

In Oregon, you can satisfy the training requirement with an online course. The Oregon State Sheriffs' Association offers one free; you pay $60 for the completion certificate. Take that to your county sheriff along with the statutory fees — ORS 166.291 sets $100 to the sheriff for initial issuance plus $15 to the state police for the fingerprint check — and you're licensed to carry a loaded handgun in public.

No live fire. No demonstration that you can actually hit a target. No drawing from a holster, no managing recoil, no clearing a malfunction. You watched some videos and answered some questions. That's it.

Oregon isn't unusual. Most states with training requirements set the bar somewhere between "watch a video" and "shoot 50 rounds at a paper target from 7 yards in a well-lit, air-conditioned range where nothing is shooting back at you."

What happens when stress shows up

RAND's 2008 evaluation of NYPD firearms training, drawing on the department's own firearm-discharge reports, found that between 1998 and 2006 officers' average hit rate in gunfights was 18 percent. These are trained professionals who qualify regularly, carry daily, and have institutional support for ongoing skill development.

Distance mattered enormously. Officers hit 37 percent of the time at seven yards or less, dropping to 23 percent beyond that. Where the subject didn't return fire, the rate was 30 percent — which tells you how much of the degradation is being shot at rather than marksmanship.

The same report puts officers' average score on the semiannual requalification course — 50 rounds at static paper targets — at about 93 out of 100.

Those two numbers come from different chapters and RAND never sets them side by side, so treat the comparison as ours rather than theirs. RAND's own conclusion is blunter than any arithmetic: shooting at paper on a known-distance range "is basically target practice. It does not demonstrate that the officer has mastered his or her firearm and is ready for a shooting confrontation on the streets."

The reason is biology. Under threat, your brain stem floods your body with stress hormones. Blood vessels constrict. Vision narrows. Fine motor skills go away. The rational, decision-making part of your brain takes a back seat to raw survival instinct.

Training under realistic stress conditions can offset some of this. But whatever you build decays without maintenance: a U.S. Army Research Institute study of basic rifle marksmanship retention found soldiers retested six weeks after training had declined roughly 10 to 15 percent, and the advantage of the experimental training program had disappeared entirely by that point.

If trained police officers with ongoing qualification requirements hit their target less than 1 in 5 times during real encounters, what does that mean for someone whose only preparation was a free online course?

The gap between licensed and prepared

A concealed carry license is paperwork. It confirms you met a minimum legal threshold. It does not mean you can identify a threat, assess your backdrop, manage your adrenaline, and put rounds where they need to go without endangering the people around you.

One firearms instructor we train with teaches roughly 2,500 people per year to get their concealed handgun license. He offers every one of them a significant discount on follow-up training. About 5 percent take him up on it.

That means 95 percent of those newly licensed carriers walk away believing the hard part is done. They have their permit. They have their gun. They feel prepared.

They aren't.

This isn't anti-gun

Nothing here is an argument against carrying a firearm.

How often armed civilians stop attacks is genuinely contested, and we're not going to hand you a number we can't stand behind. The figures that circulate most widely come from advocacy organizations with a stake in the answer, counting "active shooter incident" in ways that don't match each other or the FBI's own definition, which excludes shootings connected to another crime like a robbery or a domestic dispute. Change the definition and you change the answer. Researchers have been arguing about that methodology for years.

What isn't in dispute is the part that matters to you. Whoever the people are who intervene well under pressure, they're not the ones who took a free online course and never touched their gun again. They're the ones who kept training. The 5 percent.

The argument isn't "don't carry." It's "don't carry without training." There is a real difference between someone who is armed and someone who is prepared.

Why training before you buy makes sense

Most people do it backwards. They buy a gun, then maybe look into training later. Often they don't. The gun goes into a nightstand or a holster and stays there until something happens.

Training first changes that. Before you have a live weapon in your home, you already know the four rules, how to check a chamber, how to safely store and transport a firearm. You're not learning these things on YouTube while holding a loaded gun for the first time.

Handling different types of firearms during training, even inert training replicas, gives you a feel for what fits your hand, what you can rack, what you're comfortable with. People buy fewer wrong guns when they've handled a few first. You also walk into a gun store understanding that buying the firearm is the start of an ongoing commitment, not the finish line.

And the habits you build in training, trigger discipline, muzzle awareness, knowing your target and what's beyond it, become reflexive before there's ever a round in the chamber.

What we do about it

This is why our training parties exist.

You invite a few friends. We bring inert training firearms, no live ammunition, no range. Everyone learns in your living room, at your kitchen table, in a space where nobody is judging you for being new.

You learn to handle a firearm safely before you've spent a dollar at a gun store. You ask every question you need to ask. You figure out if a gun is even right for you before making that commitment.

Training for people who haven't bought yet, taught by people who believe the training should come first.

Next steps

If you're thinking about buying your first firearm, start here instead:

1. Book a training party and bring your friends. No experience needed.
2. Read our first-time buyer's guide for what to know before you walk into a gun store.
3. If you already have your CHL and want to actually learn to shoot, check out PDX Arsenal.

Frequently asked questions

Does a concealed carry permit mean someone is trained?

It means they met a legal minimum, which in many states is very low. Oregon accepts a free online course with no live fire and no demonstration that you can hit anything. A permit confirms you cleared a background check and a paperwork threshold. It says nothing about whether you can identify a threat, manage adrenaline, and place rounds safely.

How accurate are trained police officers in real gunfights?

RAND's 2008 evaluation of NYPD found an average hit rate of 18 percent in gunfights between 1998 and 2006 — 37 percent at seven yards or less, 23 percent beyond that. The same officers averaged about 93 out of 100 on static range qualification. Performance on paper does not predict performance under fire.

What does it cost to get a concealed handgun license in Oregon?

Roughly $175 for a first-time license: $60 for the Oregon State Sheriffs' Association course completion certificate, plus the statutory fees set by ORS 166.291(5)(a) — $100 to your county sheriff for initial issuance and $15 to the state police for the fingerprint check. Renewal is $75 to the sheriff. The course itself is free.

How many people carry concealed in the United States?

About 20.9 million held active permits at the end of 2025 according to the Crime Prevention Research Center, the only organization tracking this nationally. The real number carrying is higher, because 29 states now allow permitless carry and those people never appear in permit counts.

If I only do one thing after getting my permit, what should it be?

Dry fire. It's free, it's the practice that builds trigger control, and it fits in fifteen minutes at home. Skills decay measurably within weeks without maintenance, and range trips once a month don't provide enough repetitions to offset that.